ADB reveals economic growth forecast for Azerbaijan this year
- 14 December 2022
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its economic growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region for 2022 from 3.9% to 4.8%, while the forecast for 2023 remains unchanged at 4.2%, banks.az informs referring to the December issue of the ADB report “Asian Development Outlook.”
“The upward adjustment for 2022 reflects robust growth in many economies in the subregion as spillover from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has so far been benign. The Russian economy has fared better than expected, and exports to the Russian Federation from economies in the subregion have continued to be strong. Hydrocarbon exporters have benefited from high energy prices, and several subregional economies have benefited from inflows of people and money from the Russian Federation,” reads the report.
According to the report, ADB kept the economic forecast for Azerbaijan unchanged - in 2022 it is expected at the level of 4.2%, and in 2023 at 2.8%.
Azerbaijan's economy for the nine months of this year grew by 5.6%, reflecting high growth in construction, manufacturing, and services. Growth in Turkmenistan appears to have benefited from buoyant gas exports.
“Notwithstanding its close economic links with the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, the subregion’s largest economy, grew by a modest 2.8% in the first 3 quarters of 2022. Continuing repairs to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil export route through the Russian Federation restricted petroleum exports. As of early November 2022, the consortium was operating at a reduced capacity of 60%. Accordingly, this Supplement refrains from upwardly adjusting Update growth projections of 3% for 2022 and 3.7% for 2023.
Armenia saw a significant increase in private consumption, especially for services, with a large influx of Russian citizens and businesspeople. The economy grew by a strong 12.6% year on year in the first 9 months of 2022. Double-digit growth continued as well in Georgia, reaching 10.2% in September. As in Armenia, growth in Georgia was stimulated by strong consumer spending mainly owing to arrivals from the Russian Federation. Inward money transfers surged by 65% to September, with the amount received from the Russian Federation quadrupling. As Russian migrants arrived, receipts from tourism recovered to approach a record high set in 2019,” reads the report.
“In January–October 2022, the Kyrgyz Republic expanded by 7%, benefiting again from inflows of tourists, workers, and firms from the Russian Federation, especially after the announcement on September 22 of a military draft in the Russian Federation, and from significant money transfers that fueled consumption. In the first 9 months of 2022, Uzbekistan grew by 5.8% as the primary income surplus expanded by a factor of 2.5 with the arrival of seasonal migrant workers; Azerbaijan grew by 5.6%, reflecting high growth in construction, manufacturing, and services; and Tajikistan expanded by 7.8%, with industry as a primary driver of growth,” the ADB noted.
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